Bristol City v Stoke City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bristol City beat Stoke City 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Scott Twine for 1+ shots total (91%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Lamine Cissé for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Twine | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tomi Horvat | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Delano Burgzorg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Delano Burgzorg | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Junior Tchamadeu | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jason Knight | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jun-Ho Bae | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stoke City 5–1 Bristol City Nov 2025
- Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City Feb 2025
- Stoke City 2–2 Bristol City Oct 2024
- Stoke City 4–0 Bristol City May 2024
- Bristol City 2–3 Stoke City Sep 2023
- Stoke City 1–2 Bristol City Apr 2023
- Bristol City 1–2 Stoke City Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bristol City v Stoke City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bristol City v Stoke City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lamine Cissé at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.