Cardiff City v Rotherham United
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Cardiff City beat Rotherham United 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Jordan Hugill for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jordan Hugill for 1+ fouls drawn (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ollie Tanner | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kion Etete | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Karlan Grant | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kion Etete | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kion Etete | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manolis Siopis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sam Nombe | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sam Nombe | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christ Junior Tiehi | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andre Green | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Ralls | fouls committed | 1+ | 67% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 30% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rotherham United 5–2 Cardiff City May 2024
- Rotherham United 1–2 Cardiff City Apr 2023
- Cardiff City 1–0 Rotherham United Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Cardiff City v Rotherham United?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Cardiff City v Rotherham United?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordan Hugill at 72% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.