Rotherham United v Cardiff City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rotherham United beat Cardiff City 5–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Famara Diédhiou for 1+ shots total (90%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Lee Peltier for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famara Diédhiou | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tom Eaves | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 8 | ✓ |
| Josh Bowler | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Josh Bowler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hakeem Odofin | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lee Peltier | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sebastian Revan | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Eaves | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cian Ashford | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ollie Tanner | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| David Turnbull | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Famara Diédhiou | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 37% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 30% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 18% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Cardiff City 2–0 Rotherham United Sep 2023
- Rotherham United 1–2 Cardiff City Apr 2023
- Cardiff City 1–0 Rotherham United Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rotherham United v Cardiff City?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rotherham United v Cardiff City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lee Peltier at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.