Hull City v Watford
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hull City drew with Watford 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Lewis Koumas for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Othmane Maamma for 1+ shots total (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Koumas | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yu Hirakawa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Othmane Maamma | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jeremy Petris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Imrân Louza | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Othmane Maamma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Imrân Louza | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 7 | ✓ |
| Edo Kayembe | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 56% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 0 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Watford 2–1 Hull City Sep 2025
- Watford 1–0 Hull City Apr 2025
- Hull City 1–1 Watford Dec 2024
- Watford 0–0 Hull City Apr 2024
- Hull City 1–2 Watford Dec 2023
- Hull City 1–0 Watford Apr 2023
- Watford 0–0 Hull City Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hull City v Watford?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hull City v Watford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Othmane Maamma at 74% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.