Ipswich v Coventry City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ipswich beat Coventry City 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Marcelino Núñez for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jaden Philogene-Bidace for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ellis Simms | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kaine Kesler-Hayden | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Rudoni | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| George Hirst | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Eccles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matt Grimes | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Azor Matusiwa | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jay DaSilva | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ephron Mason-Clark | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sindre Walle Egeli | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 66% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Coventry City 0–2 Ipswich Dec 2025
- Coventry City 1–2 Ipswich Apr 2024
- Ipswich 2–1 Coventry City Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ipswich v Coventry City?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ipswich v Coventry City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jaden Philogene-Bidace at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.