Ipswich v Millwall
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ipswich drew with Millwall 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ivan Azón for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Dan Neil for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Azón | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Femi Azeez | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Anis Mehmeti | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mihailo Ivanović | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jack Clarke | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Dan Neil | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasey McAteer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Josh Coburn | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kasey McAteer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Billy Mitchell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Josh Coburn | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Josh Coburn | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 25% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Millwall 0–0 Ipswich Dec 2025
- Millwall 0–4 Ipswich Feb 2024
- Ipswich 3–1 Millwall Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ipswich v Millwall?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ipswich v Millwall?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dan Neil at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.