Ipswich v Stoke City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ipswich beat Stoke City 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Marcelino Núñez for 1+ shots total (82%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Sam Gallagher for 1+ fouls committed (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcelino Núñez | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ivan Azón | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Divin Mubama | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jaden Philogene-Bidace | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Divin Mubama | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sindre Walle Egeli | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maksym Talovierov | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Taylor | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcelino Núñez | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 49% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Stoke City 3–3 Ipswich Mar 2026
- Stoke City 0–0 Ipswich Jan 2024
- Ipswich 2–0 Stoke City Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ipswich v Stoke City?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ipswich v Stoke City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Sam Gallagher at 78% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.