Leeds v Sheffield Wednesday
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leeds beat Sheffield Wednesday 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Max Lowe for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Mateo Joseph for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Lowe | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shea Charles | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Daniel James | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateo Joseph | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ao Tanaka | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manor Solomon | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jayden Bogle | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sam Byram | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Josh Windass | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ethan Ampadu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 20% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Leeds Aug 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds Aug 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds Mar 2024
- Leeds 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leeds v Sheffield Wednesday?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leeds v Sheffield Wednesday?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mateo Joseph at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.