Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield Wednesday lost to Leeds 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Yan Valery for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Brenden Aaronson for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Iorfa | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yan Valery | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Max Lowe | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Daniel James | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mateo Joseph | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Junior Firpo | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 4 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Daniel James | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Djeidi Gassama | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wilfried Gnonto | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Djeidi Gassama | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 54% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Leeds Aug 2025
- Leeds 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday Jan 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–2 Leeds Mar 2024
- Leeds 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds?
The most confident call it got wrong was Brenden Aaronson at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.