Leeds v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leeds beat Sunderland 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Daniel James for 1+ shots total (84%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Enzo Le Fée for 1+ fouls committed (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
7 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel James | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 5 | ✓ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Junior Firpo | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilia Gruev | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jayden Bogle | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Brenden Aaronson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Enzo Le Fée | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ao Tanaka | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ethan Ampadu | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jobe Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manor Solomon | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Chris Rigg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 49% | 9 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leeds None–None Sunderland May 2027
- Sunderland None–None Leeds Oct 2026
- Leeds 0–1 Sunderland Mar 2026
- Sunderland 1–1 Leeds Dec 2025
- Sunderland 2–2 Leeds Oct 2024
- Leeds 0–0 Sunderland Apr 2024
- Sunderland 1–0 Leeds Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leeds v Sunderland?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leeds v Sunderland?
The most confident call it got wrong was Enzo Le Fée at 73% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.