Leicester v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leicester lost to Southampton 3–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Leo Scienza for 1+ shots total (80%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Leo Scienza for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Shea Charles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Flynn Downes | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Oliver Skipp | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ross Stewart | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patson Daka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Archer | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Archer | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Pereira | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Shea Charles | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Divine Mukasa | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 1 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 60% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 57% | 7 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 3–0 Leicester Nov 2025
- Leicester 2–0 Southampton May 2025
- Southampton 2–3 Leicester Oct 2024
- Leicester 5–0 Southampton Apr 2024
- Southampton 1–4 Leicester Sep 2023
- Southampton 1–0 Leicester Mar 2023
- Leicester 1–2 Southampton Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leicester v Southampton?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leicester v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Leo Scienza at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.