Southampton v Leicester
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Southampton beat Leicester 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Adam Armstrong for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Armstrong | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Hamza Choudhury | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Caspar Jander | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patson Daka | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Ayew | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Welington | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Aribo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Flynn Downes | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Silko Thomas | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Finn Azaz | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 68% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 58% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leicester 3–4 Southampton Feb 2026
- Leicester 2–0 Southampton May 2025
- Southampton 2–3 Leicester Oct 2024
- Leicester 5–0 Southampton Apr 2024
- Southampton 1–4 Leicester Sep 2023
- Southampton 1–0 Leicester Mar 2023
- Leicester 1–2 Southampton Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Southampton v Leicester?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Southampton v Leicester?
The most confident call it got wrong was Abdul Fatawu Issahaku at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.