Middlesbrough v Norwich
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Middlesbrough beat Norwich 4–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Aidan Morris for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Andre Brooks for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chrisene | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aidan Morris | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Will Lankshear | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anthony Musaba | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tommy Conway | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andre Brooks | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Riley McGree | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jack Stacey | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jovon Makama | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aidan Morris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andre Brooks | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sebastian Berhalter | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kellen Fisher | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jovon Makama | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 35% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Middlesbrough 1–0 Norwich Jan 2026
- Norwich 1–2 Middlesbrough Aug 2025
- Middlesbrough 0–0 Norwich Apr 2025
- Norwich 3–3 Middlesbrough Oct 2024
- Middlesbrough 3–1 Norwich Mar 2024
- Norwich 1–2 Middlesbrough Oct 2023
- Middlesbrough 5–1 Norwich Apr 2023
- Norwich 1–2 Middlesbrough Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Middlesbrough v Norwich?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Middlesbrough v Norwich?
The most confident call it got wrong was Andre Brooks at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.