Plymouth Argyle v Preston North End
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Plymouth Argyle drew with Preston North End 3–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Sam Greenwood for 1+ fouls committed (87%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Brad Potts for 1+ fouls committed (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Greenwood | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morgan Whittaker | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mads Frøkjær | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 3 | ✓ |
| Emil Riis Jacobsen | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ali McCann | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Frederick Issaka | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Morgan Whittaker | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sam Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Andre Gray | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Brad Potts | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Duane Holmes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bali Mumba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adam Forshaw | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 44% | 6 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Preston North End 1–2 Plymouth Argyle Apr 2025
- Plymouth Argyle 0–1 Preston North End Mar 2024
- Preston North End 2–1 Plymouth Argyle Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Plymouth Argyle v Preston North End?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Plymouth Argyle v Preston North End?
The most confident call it got wrong was Brad Potts at 74% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.