Plymouth Argyle v Sunderland
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Plymouth Argyle beat Sunderland 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Bali Mumba for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bali Mumba | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Morgan Whittaker | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Edwards | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Trai Hume | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Cissoko | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dan Neil | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adam Randell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Darko Gyabi | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bali Mumba | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hardie | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 59% | 8 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sunderland 2–2 Plymouth Argyle Jan 2025
- Sunderland 3–1 Plymouth Argyle Feb 2024
- Plymouth Argyle 2–0 Sunderland Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Plymouth Argyle v Sunderland?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Plymouth Argyle v Sunderland?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.