Sunderland v Plymouth Argyle
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland drew with Plymouth Argyle 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Wilson Isidor for 1+ shots total (85%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Michael Baidoo for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Michael Baidoo | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Callum Wright | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Houghton | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mustapha Bundu | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 6 | ✓ |
| Matthew Sorinola | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Enzo Le Fée | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hardie | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julio Pleguezuelo | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dan Neil | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 55% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 44% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 35% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Plymouth Argyle 3–2 Sunderland Sep 2024
- Sunderland 3–1 Plymouth Argyle Feb 2024
- Plymouth Argyle 2–0 Sunderland Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v Plymouth Argyle?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v Plymouth Argyle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Michael Baidoo at 80% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.