Preston North End v Hull City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Preston North End lost to Hull City 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Pol Valentín for 1+ tackles (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Lewis Dobbin for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pol Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lewis Dobbin | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfie Devine | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Odeluga Offiah | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| David Akintola | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oli McBurnie | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 6 | ✓ |
| Daniel Jebbison | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Liam Millar | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yu Hirakawa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matt Crooks | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Smith | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thierry Small | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hull City 2–2 Preston North End Sep 2025
- Hull City 2–1 Preston North End Apr 2025
- Preston North End 1–0 Hull City Dec 2024
- Preston North End 0–0 Hull City Mar 2024
- Hull City 1–0 Preston North End Oct 2023
- Hull City 0–0 Preston North End Feb 2023
- Preston North End 0–0 Hull City Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Preston North End v Hull City?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Preston North End v Hull City?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lewis Dobbin at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.