Sheffield Wednesday v Portsmouth
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield Wednesday lost to Portsmouth 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Ebou Adams for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Conor Chaplin for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebou Adams | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ebou Adams | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Connor Ogilvie | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Millenic Alli | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Conor Chaplin | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jamal Lowe | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bailey Cadamarteri | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bailey Cadamarteri | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Charlie McNeill | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Colby Bishop | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Millenic Alli | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Millenic Alli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Terry Devlin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Portsmouth 0–2 Sheffield Wednesday Sep 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Portsmouth Apr 2025
- Portsmouth 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield Wednesday v Portsmouth?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield Wednesday v Portsmouth?
The most confident call it got wrong was Conor Chaplin at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.