Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Stoke City beat Sheffield Wednesday 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Sam Gallagher for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Million Manhoef for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Gallagher | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Olaf Kobacki | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lamine Cissé | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jaden Heskey | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Charlie McNeill | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Million Manhoef | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sam Gallagher | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jerry Yates | shots total | 1+ | 68% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nathaniel Chalobah | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 Stoke City Aug 2025
- Stoke City 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday Apr 2025
- Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Stoke City Dec 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Stoke City Apr 2024
- Stoke City 0–1 Sheffield Wednesday Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday?
The most confident call it got wrong was Million Manhoef at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.