Sunderland v Hull City
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland lost to Hull City 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Matt Crooks for 1+ fouls committed (85%, had 4). Its clearest miss: João Pedro Galvão for 1+ fouls committed (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro Galvão | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Matt Crooks | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eliot Matazo | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Puerta | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eliezer Mayenda | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kyle Joseph | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Louie Barry | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 46% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 44% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hull City None–None Sunderland Feb 2027
- Sunderland None–None Hull City Jan 2027
- Hull City 0–1 Sunderland Oct 2024
- Sunderland 0–1 Hull City Jan 2024
- Hull City 0–1 Sunderland Dec 2023
- Sunderland 4–4 Hull City Apr 2023
- Hull City 1–1 Sunderland Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v Hull City?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v Hull City?
The most confident call it got wrong was João Pedro Galvão at 86% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.