Sunderland v Watford
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland drew with Watford 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Imrân Louza for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Moussa Sissoko for 1+ fouls committed (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imrân Louza | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wilson Isidor | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Edo Kayembe | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moussa Sissoko | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ian Poveda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Roberts | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Chris Rigg | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Milan Aleksić | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Milan Aleksić | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mamadou Doumbia | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Cirkin | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Enzo Le Fée | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 72% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Watford 2–1 Sunderland Sep 2024
- Watford 1–0 Sunderland Apr 2024
- Sunderland 2–0 Watford Oct 2023
- Sunderland 2–2 Watford Apr 2023
- Watford 2–2 Sunderland Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v Watford?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v Watford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Moussa Sissoko at 76% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.