West Brom v Watford
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before West Brom beat Watford 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Rabby Nzingoula for 1+ tackles (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Luca Kjerrumgaard for 1+ shots total (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rabby Nzingoula | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Edoardo Bove | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Isaac Price | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aune Selland Heggebø | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luca Kjerrumgaard | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iker Bravo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rabby Nzingoula | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jordan Zemura | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Styles | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Harry Whitwell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Ousmane Diakité | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Martín Payero | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jimmy Morgan | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Stephy Mavididi | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 31% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- West Brom 3–0 Watford Apr 2026
- Watford 2–1 West Brom Oct 2025
- West Brom 2–1 Watford Apr 2025
- Watford 2–1 West Brom Dec 2024
- West Brom 2–2 Watford Apr 2024
- Watford 2–2 West Brom Sep 2023
- Watford 3–2 West Brom Feb 2023
- West Brom 1–1 Watford Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on West Brom v Watford?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on West Brom v Watford?
The most confident call it got wrong was Luca Kjerrumgaard at 87% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.