Curtis Nelson
Over the last 10 Championship games, Curtis Nelson has hit 1+ shot on target in 40% (4 of 10), 1+ total shot in 70%, 1+ foul committed in 60%, 1+ foul won in 20%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
All markets last 10 games
Recent matches
The last 10 games Curtis Nelson featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Birmingham City26 Dec | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leicester6 Dec | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Watford18 Jan | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Bristol City4 Jan | 90 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Sheffield Wednesday1 Jan | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leeds29 Dec | 90 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Brom26 Dec | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Luton20 Dec | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Portsmouth13 Dec | 90 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Burnley10 Dec | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 4 current Championship officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Championship referees →
Frequently asked
How often does Curtis Nelson have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Championship games, Curtis Nelson has hit 1+ shot on target in 40% (4 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then de-vigs the bookmaker's price.
How many shots on target does Curtis Nelson average?
Across the last 10 Championship games, Curtis Nelson is averaging 0.47 shots on target and 0.94 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Curtis Nelson get booked?
Curtis Nelson is averaging 0.12 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Curtis Nelson commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Curtis Nelson commits 1.76 fouls per 90 and wins 0.23 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Curtis Nelson?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, de-vigged against the bookmaker's price. Curtis Nelson plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors, and de-vigging before flagging value. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.