Luke Ayling
Centre-back 63% of 30 recent starts MiddlesbroughChampionship 26/27
Also in: Premier League
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Championship centre-back, 25/26, 2,357 appearances
Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox
Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
Confirmed by a link. Unsubscribe in one click. Or open the player report.
In 26/27, Luke Ayling has hit 1+ shot on target in 12% of 8 Championship appearances (1 of 8), 1+ total shot in 50%, 1+ foul committed in 12%, 1+ foul won in 62%, and been booked in 0% (0 of 8). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable centre-backs
The closest 5 profiles to Luke Ayling in Championship, 26/27 — drawn from 37 centre-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke AylingMiddlesbrough | 8 | 0.81 | 0.16 |
| Ben CabangoSwansea City | 6 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Ryley TowlerLincoln City | 7 | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Conor ShaughnessyPortsmouth | 6 | 0.88 | 0.35 |
| Nathan WoodSouthampton | 7 | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| Jimmy DunneQueens Park Rangers | 8 | 0.93 | 0.40 |
| These 5, combined | 0.66 | 0.49 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Luke Ayling featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Birmingham City19 Sep | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Millwall15 Sep | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Norwich12 Sep | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Queens Park Rangers5 Sep | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Burnley2 Sep | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| West Brom29 Aug | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Blackburn Rovers22 Aug | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Lincoln City15 Aug | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Hull City23 May | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| @ Southampton12 May | 119 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 14 current Championship officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Championship referees
Frequently asked
How often does Luke Ayling have a shot on target?
In 26/27, Luke Ayling has hit 1+ shot on target in 12% of 8 Championship appearances (1 of 8). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Luke Ayling average?
Across 8 Championship appearances in 26/27, Luke Ayling is averaging 0.16 shots on target and 0.81 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Luke Ayling get booked?
Luke Ayling is averaging 0.00 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Luke Ayling commit or win more fouls?
This season Luke Ayling commits 0.16 fouls per 90 and wins 1.13 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Luke Ayling?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Luke Ayling plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.