Lucas Cepeda
Central midfielder 80% of 5 recent starts ElcheLa Liga 26/27
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a La Liga central midfielder, 25/26, 2,700 appearances
Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox
Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 La Liga games, Lucas Cepeda has hit 1+ shot on target in 50% (5 of 10), 1+ total shot in 70%, 1+ foul committed in 60%, 1+ foul won in 40%, and been booked in 20% (2 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable central midfielders
The closest 5 profiles to Lucas Cepeda in La Liga, 26/27 — drawn from 29 central midfielders with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas CepedaElche | 7 | 3.57 | 1.98 |
| Kang-in LeeAtlético Madrid | 7 | 3.84 | 2.11 |
| Jude BellinghamReal Madrid | 7 | 2.72 | 1.02 |
| Luka SučićReal Sociedad | 7 | 2.45 | 0.65 |
| Urko GonzálezEspanyol | 8 | 0.19 | 1.71 |
| Carlos DotorMálaga CF | 7 | 0.73 | 1.45 |
| These 5, combined | 2.00 | 1.36 |
No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Lucas Cepeda featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Espanyol18 Sep | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Real Madrid15 Sep | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| @ Athletic Club12 Sep | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Real Sociedad7 Sep | 20 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Real Racing Club30 Aug | 21 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Barcelona23 Aug | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Deportivo de A Coruña16 Aug | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Getafe17 May | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Celta Vigo3 May | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Atlético Madrid22 Apr | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Frequently asked
How often does Lucas Cepeda have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 La Liga games, Lucas Cepeda has hit 1+ shot on target in 50% (5 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Lucas Cepeda average?
Across the last 10 La Liga games, Lucas Cepeda is averaging 1.96 shots on target and 3.60 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Lucas Cepeda get booked?
Lucas Cepeda is averaging 0.65 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Lucas Cepeda commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Lucas Cepeda commits 2.62 fouls per 90 and wins 2.62 — an even split. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Lucas Cepeda?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Lucas Cepeda plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.