Shots on target — the model, the value and how to read the odds
Shots on target is the most-modelled player market in the Premier League bet builder, and one of the most frequently mispriced. SharpXI turns four seasons of shot data into a true probability for a player's 1+ or 2+ shots on target, so you can spot when the price is generous.
How SharpXI models it
We build a recency-weighted per-90 rate for the player, shrink it toward a positional prior when the sample is thin, scale it by projected minutes, then apply an opponent factor for how many shots on target that defence tends to concede. A Negative Binomial distribution (which handles the over-dispersion real shot data shows) gives P(shots on target ≥ line), and Shin's method strips the bookmaker margin before we compare it to the price.
Go deeper: How we model shots on target
Where the value tends to sit
Attackers against leaky defences, and midfielders whose shot volume the market under-rates, are where the edge tends to sit. The line matters: 1+ is a high-probability, short-price leg; 2+ swings on minutes and role.
Premier League — how this market behaves
Across 1,245 graded Premier League predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ shot on target in 25.6% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 15.4% here, against UEFA Champions League 18.6%, La Liga 17.4%, Ligue 1 16.5%, UEFA Europa League 16.3%, Serie A 15.7%, Bundesliga 14.3%, UEFA Nations League 13.9%, Championship 13.4% and EFL Cup 12.3%
Premier League leaders this season
In the 26/27 Premier League season, Erling Haaland (Man City) leads for shots on target at 2.00 per 90, ahead of Bryan Mbeumo (1.20) and Bruno Fernandes (1.00). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | Man City | 2.00 | 100% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Man Utd | 1.20 | 100% |
| Bruno Fernandes | Man Utd | 1.00 | 60% |
| Antoine Semenyo | Man City | 0.80 | 60% |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | Everton | 0.60 | 40% |
| Leif Davis | Ipswich | 0.60 | 40% |
| Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 0.60 | 60% |
| Pascal Groß | Brighton | 0.60 | 60% |
| Adrien Truffert | Bournemouth | 0.40 | 20% |
| Calvin Bassey | Fulham | 0.40 | 40% |
| Chris Richards | Crystal Palace | 0.40 | 40% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | Arsenal | 0.40 | 20% |
Frequently asked
What does 1+ shots on target mean?
It's a bet that the player has at least one shot on target in the match. 2+ means at least two. SharpXI models the probability of each line separately.
How does SharpXI decide a shots-on-target price is value?
It compares its own modelled probability with the implied probability of the bookmaker's price as offered. When the model's number is higher, the leg is flagged as value — with a confidence rating from the sample size. ⚠ Shots on target is quoted one side only, so the margin cannot be stripped out and the edge shown is before the bookmaker's margin, not after it.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.