Premier League · 24/25

Arsenal v Leicester

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Arsenal4 – 2 Leicester 28 Sep 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Bukayo Saka	shots total	1+	100%	7	✓
Leandro Trossard	shots total	1+	96%	4	✓
Kai Havertz	shots total	1+	95%	7	✓
Gabriel Martinelli	shots total	1+	88%	4	✓
Bukayo Saka	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓
Declan Rice	shots total	1+	80%	3	✓
Stephy Mavididi	shots total	1+	80%	0	✗
Facundo Buonanotte	fouls committed	1+	80%	1	✓
Facundo Buonanotte	fouls drawn	1+	78%	2	✓
Oliver Skipp	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗
Kai Havertz	fouls committed	1+	76%	1	✓
Wilfred Ndidi	fouls committed	1+	75%	1	✓
James Justin	fouls drawn	1+	73%	3	✓
Kai Havertz	fouls drawn	1+	73%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	53%	6 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	34%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	25%	6 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Arsenal & Leicester player stats→ Arsenal players & stats→ Leicester players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works