Premier League · 25/26

Aston Villa v West Ham

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Aston Villa2 – 0 West Ham 22 Mar 2026

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 9 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Ollie Watkins	shots total	1+	93%	5	✓
Morgan Rogers	shots total	1+	93%	4	✓
Callum Wilson	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Pablo Felipe	shots total	1+	88%	2	✓
Valentín Castellanos	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Leon Bailey	shots total	1+	88%	0	✗
John McGinn	fouls drawn	1+	85%	1	✓
Valentín Castellanos	fouls committed	1+	81%	0	✗
Pablo Felipe	fouls committed	1+	81%	1	✓
Mateus Fernandes	fouls committed	1+	81%	2	✓
Jarrod Bowen	shots total	1+	79%	2	✓
Tomáš Souček	fouls committed	1+	78%	0	✗
Youri Tielemans	fouls drawn	1+	78%	0	✗

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	52%	No	✗
Match goals	O2.5	52%	2 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	25%	1 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Aston Villa & West Ham player stats→ Aston Villa players & stats→ West Ham players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works