West Ham v Aston Villa
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before West Ham lost to Aston Villa 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Donyell Malen for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ollie Watkins for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ollie Watkins | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soungoutou Magassa | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateus Fernandes | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amadou Onana | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ian Maatsen | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Youri Tielemans | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarrod Bowen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Paquetá | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Boubacar Kamara | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Paquetá | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Soungoutou Magassa | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jean-Clair Todibo | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Aston Villa 2–0 West Ham Mar 2026
- Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham Jan 2025
- West Ham 1–2 Aston Villa Aug 2024
- West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa Mar 2024
- Aston Villa 4–1 West Ham Oct 2023
- West Ham 1–1 Aston Villa Mar 2023
- Aston Villa 0–1 West Ham Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on West Ham v Aston Villa?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on West Ham v Aston Villa?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ollie Watkins at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.