Hull City v Derby County
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Hull City beat Derby County 4–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Patrick Agyemang for 1+ fouls committed (80%, had 3). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Agyemang | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Patrick Agyemang | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sammie Szmodics | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joe Gelhardt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Agyemang | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lewis Travis | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Liam Millar | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| David Ozoh | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kyle Joseph | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 5 | ✓ |
| Oli McBurnie | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kyle Joseph | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ben Brereton Díaz | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Derby County 2–1 Hull City Nov 2025
- Hull City 0–1 Derby County Apr 2025
- Derby County 1–1 Hull City Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Hull City v Derby County?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Hull City v Derby County?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.