Sheffield Wednesday v Southampton
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield Wednesday lost to Southampton 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Shea Charles for 1+ fouls drawn (83%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Leo Scienza for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Shea Charles | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Svante Ingelsson | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Finn Azaz | shots total | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nathaniel Chalobah | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarvis Thornton | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gabriel Otegbayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Shea Charles | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cyle Larin | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kuryu Matsuki | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cyle Larin | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kuryu Matsuki | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cyle Larin | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 57% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 30% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Southampton 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday Nov 2025
- Southampton 4–0 Sheffield Wednesday Jan 2024
- Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Southampton Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield Wednesday v Southampton?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield Wednesday v Southampton?
The most confident call it got wrong was Leo Scienza at 87% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.