What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Ligue 1 centre-back, 25/26, 1,295 appearances
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Over the last 10 Ligue 1 games, Otávio has hit 1+ shot on target in 30% (3 of 10), 1+ total shot in 50%, 1+ foul committed in 80%, 1+ foul won in 50%, and been booked in 20% (2 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable centre-backs
The closest 5 profiles to Otávio in Ligue 1, 25/26 — drawn from 57 centre-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| OtávioParis FC | 23 | 0.57 | 1.13 |
| Leonardo BalerdiAS Roma | 26 | 0.90 | 1.04 |
| Arouna SanganteSevilla | 28 | 0.35 | 1.62 |
| Sadibou SanéAS Monaco | 23 | 0.28 | 1.02 |
| Kojo Peprah OppongFenerbahçe | 31 | 0.41 | 1.07 |
| Sinaly DiomandéAuxerre | 24 | 0.38 | 1.31 |
| These 5, combined | 0.46 | 1.22 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Otávio featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice30 Aug | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Troyes22 Aug | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Paris Saint-Germain17 May | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| @ Metz19 Apr | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Le Havre22 Mar | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Toulouse21 Feb | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| RC Lens14 Feb | 74 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| @ Auxerre8 Feb | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Olympique de Marseille31 Jan | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Angers25 Jan | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 2 current Ligue 1 officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Ligue 1 referees
Frequently asked
How often does Otávio have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Ligue 1 games, Otávio has hit 1+ shot on target in 30% (3 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Otávio average?
Across the last 10 Ligue 1 games, Otávio is averaging 0.34 shots on target and 0.68 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Otávio get booked?
Otávio is averaging 0.23 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Otávio commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Otávio commits 1.14 fouls per 90 and wins 1.25 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Otávio?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Otávio plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.