What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Premier League striker, 25/26, 1,416 appearances
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Picked from 20 selections across 10 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 Premier League games, Gabriel Jesus has hit 1+ shot on target in 70% (7 of 10), 1+ total shot in 80%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 0%, and been booked in 20% (2 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Gabriel Jesus in Premier League, 25/26 — drawn from 44 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel JesusFC Barcelona | 14 | 4.06 | 1.92 |
| Joshua ZirkzeeManchester United | 24 | 3.38 | 1.22 |
| Taiwo AwoniyiCoventry City | 17 | 2.69 | 1.79 |
| Valentín CastellanosWest Ham United | 18 | 3.23 | 2.06 |
| Benjamin ŠeškoManchester United | 30 | 3.36 | 0.94 |
| Wilson IsidorSunderland | 32 | 3.30 | 1.07 |
| These 5, combined | 3.25 | 1.37 |
No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Gabriel Jesus featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Crystal Palace24 May | 75 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fulham2 May | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bournemouth11 Apr | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Wolves18 Feb | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sunderland7 Feb | 60 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Leeds31 Jan | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Man Utd25 Jan | 58 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Nottingham Forest17 Jan | 33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liverpool8 Jan | 26 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Bournemouth3 Jan | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 10 current Premier League officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Premier League referees
Frequently asked
How often does Gabriel Jesus have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Premier League games, Gabriel Jesus has hit 1+ shot on target in 70% (7 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Gabriel Jesus average?
Across the last 10 Premier League games, Gabriel Jesus is averaging 2.54 shots on target and 3.55 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Gabriel Jesus get booked?
Gabriel Jesus is averaging 0.51 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Gabriel Jesus commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Gabriel Jesus commits 2.03 fouls per 90 and wins 0.00 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Gabriel Jesus?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Gabriel Jesus plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.