Nico O'Reilly
Full-back 70% of 30 recent starts Man CityPremier League 26/27
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Premier League full-back, 25/26, 1,736 appearances
Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox
Picked from 41 selections across 14 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 Premier League games, Nico O'Reilly has hit 1+ shot on target in 40% (4 of 10), 1+ total shot in 70%, 1+ foul committed in 90%, 1+ foul won in 30%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable full-backs
The closest 5 profiles to Nico O'Reilly in Premier League, 25/26 — drawn from 61 full-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico O'ReillyManchester City | 34 | 1.39 | 1.53 |
| Riccardo CalafioriArsenal | 26 | 1.69 | 1.37 |
| Djed SpenceInter | 30 | 0.56 | 1.21 |
| Neco WilliamsNottingham Forest | 37 | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| Ian MaatsenAston Villa | 30 | 1.11 | 0.95 |
| Jurriën TimberArsenal | 30 | 0.92 | 1.39 |
| These 5, combined | 1.11 | 1.13 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Nico O'Reilly featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland20 Sep | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Man Utd13 Sep | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Crystal Palace28 Aug | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bournemouth23 Aug | 63 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Bournemouth19 May | 90 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brentford9 May | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| @ Everton4 May | 90 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Burnley22 Apr | 90 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Arsenal19 Apr | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Chelsea12 Apr | 64 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 7 current Premier League officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Premier League referees
Frequently asked
How often does Nico O'Reilly have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Premier League games, Nico O'Reilly has hit 1+ shot on target in 40% (4 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Nico O'Reilly average?
Across the last 10 Premier League games, Nico O'Reilly is averaging 0.79 shots on target and 1.71 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Nico O'Reilly get booked?
Nico O'Reilly is averaging 0.13 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Nico O'Reilly commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Nico O'Reilly commits 1.97 fouls per 90 and wins 0.66 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Nico O'Reilly?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Nico O'Reilly plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.