What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Bundesliga centre-back, 25/26, 1,091 appearances
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In 25/26, Castello Lukeba has hit 1+ shot on target in 8% of 26 Bundesliga appearances (2 of 26), 1+ total shot in 27%, 1+ foul committed in 35%, 1+ foul won in 38%, and been booked in 12% (3 of 26). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable centre-backs
The closest 5 profiles to Castello Lukeba in Bundesliga, 25/26 — drawn from 46 centre-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castello LukebaRB Leipzig | 26 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| Nico ElvediLeeds United | 33 | 0.27 | 0.55 |
| Hauke WahlFC St. Pauli | 30 | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| Rav van den Berg1. FC Köln | 14 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Karim CoulibalyRC Strasbourg | 27 | 0.25 | 0.76 |
| Robert AndrichBayer 04 Leverkusen | 32 | 0.42 | 1.06 |
| These 5, combined | 0.29 | 0.69 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Castello Lukeba featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV13 Sep | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Borussia M'gladbach29 Aug | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ SC Freiburg16 May | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| FC St. Pauli9 May | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| @ Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 May | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ SV Werder Bremen4 Apr | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TSG Hoffenheim20 Mar | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ VfB Stuttgart15 Mar | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| FC Augsburg7 Mar | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Hamburger SV1 Mar | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 14 current Bundesliga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Bundesliga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Castello Lukeba have a shot on target?
In 25/26, Castello Lukeba has hit 1+ shot on target in 8% of 26 Bundesliga appearances (2 of 26). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Castello Lukeba average?
Across 26 Bundesliga appearances in 25/26, Castello Lukeba is averaging 0.08 shots on target and 0.33 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Castello Lukeba get booked?
Castello Lukeba is averaging 0.12 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Castello Lukeba commit or win more fouls?
This season Castello Lukeba commits 0.45 fouls per 90 and wins 0.50 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Castello Lukeba?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Castello Lukeba plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.