Aaron Connolly
Striker 68% of 25 recent starts MillwallChampionship 24/25
What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Championship striker, 25/26, 2,430 appearances
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Over the last 10 Championship games, Aaron Connolly has hit 1+ shot on target in 20% (2 of 10), 1+ total shot in 40%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 80%, and been booked in 20% (2 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Aaron Connolly featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich21 Apr | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Blackburn Rovers18 Apr | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Portsmouth5 Apr | 82 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Sunderland29 Mar | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Stoke City15 Mar | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| @ Leeds12 Mar | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Watford8 Mar | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Preston North End18 Feb | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| West Brom15 Feb | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| @ Plymouth Argyle12 Feb | 77 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 5 current Championship officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Championship referees
Frequently asked
How often does Aaron Connolly have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Championship games, Aaron Connolly has hit 1+ shot on target in 20% (2 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Aaron Connolly average?
Across the last 10 Championship games, Aaron Connolly is averaging 0.46 shots on target and 1.16 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Aaron Connolly get booked?
Aaron Connolly is averaging 0.46 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Aaron Connolly commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Aaron Connolly commits 0.93 fouls per 90 and wins 4.40 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Aaron Connolly?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Aaron Connolly plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.