What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Primeira Liga forward, 25/26, 2,890 appearances
Five selections from the player report, free in your inbox
Picked from 304 selections across 78 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
Confirmed by a link. Unsubscribe in one click. Or open the player report.
Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Conrad Harder has hit 1+ shot on target in 40% (4 of 10), 1+ total shot in 60%, 1+ foul committed in 20%, 1+ foul won in 50%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Conrad Harder in Primeira Liga, 25/26 — drawn from 9 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conrad HarderRC Strasbourg | 4 | 8.06 | 0.00 |
| Fotis IoannidisSporting CP | 13 | 1.94 | 0.97 |
| Franjo IvanovićBenfica | 25 | 3.25 | 1.93 |
| Luis Javier SuárezSporting CP | 32 | 4.54 | 1.43 |
| Vangelis PavlidisBenfica | 33 | 3.27 | 0.51 |
| Samu AghehowaFC Porto | 20 | 3.50 | 1.15 |
| These 5, combined | 3.65 | 1.11 |
No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Conrad Harder featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto30 Aug | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| @ CD Nacional23 Aug | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| FC Arouca17 Aug | 18 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Casa Pia8 Aug | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vitória SC17 May | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Benfica10 May | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gil Vicente4 May | 26 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Boavista27 Apr | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Santa Clara12 Apr | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Sporting Braga7 Apr | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 3 current Primeira Liga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Primeira Liga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Conrad Harder have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Conrad Harder has hit 1+ shot on target in 40% (4 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Conrad Harder average?
Across the last 10 Primeira Liga games, Conrad Harder is averaging 3.36 shots on target and 6.72 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Conrad Harder get booked?
Conrad Harder is averaging 0.67 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Conrad Harder commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Conrad Harder commits 2.01 fouls per 90 and wins 5.37 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Conrad Harder?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Conrad Harder plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.