What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Bundesliga striker, 25/26, 1,379 appearances
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In 25/26, Conrad Harder has hit 1+ shot on target in 31% of 29 Bundesliga appearances (9 of 29), 1+ total shot in 66%, 1+ foul committed in 52%, 1+ foul won in 45%, and been booked in 10% (3 of 29). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Conrad Harder in Bundesliga, 25/26 — drawn from 47 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conrad HarderRC Strasbourg | 29 | 4.11 | 2.06 |
| Christian KofaneBayer 04 Leverkusen | 29 | 3.26 | 2.13 |
| Fábio SilvaBorussia Dortmund | 28 | 2.50 | 2.07 |
| Ermedin DemirovićVfB Stuttgart | 25 | 2.45 | 2.21 |
| Rodrigo RibeiroFC Augsburg | 14 | 3.70 | 1.42 |
| Phillip Tietz1. FSV Mainz 05 | 29 | 2.59 | 1.89 |
| These 5, combined | 2.80 | 2.00 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Conrad Harder featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia M'gladbach29 Aug | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ SC Freiburg16 May | 73 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Bayer 04 Leverkusen2 May | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 1. FC Union Berlin24 Apr | 22 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Eintracht Frankfurt18 Apr | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ SV Werder Bremen4 Apr | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TSG Hoffenheim20 Mar | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ VfB Stuttgart15 Mar | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Augsburg7 Mar | 16 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Hamburger SV1 Mar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 3 current Bundesliga officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Bundesliga referees
Frequently asked
How often does Conrad Harder have a shot on target?
In 25/26, Conrad Harder has hit 1+ shot on target in 31% of 29 Bundesliga appearances (9 of 29). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Conrad Harder average?
Across 29 Bundesliga appearances in 25/26, Conrad Harder is averaging 1.27 shots on target and 4.11 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Conrad Harder get booked?
Conrad Harder is averaging 0.29 cards per 90 this season. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Conrad Harder commit or win more fouls?
This season Conrad Harder commits 2.06 fouls per 90 and wins 1.76 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Conrad Harder?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Conrad Harder plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.