What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Premier League forward, 25/26, 2,530 appearances
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Picked from 41 selections across 14 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 Premier League games, Federico Chiesa has hit 1+ shot on target in 30% (3 of 10), 1+ total shot in 40%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 20%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable strikers
The closest 5 profiles to Federico Chiesa in Premier League, 25/26 — drawn from 44 strikers with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federico ChiesaLiverpool FC | 26 | 3.83 | 2.48 |
| Joshua ZirkzeeManchester United | 24 | 3.38 | 1.22 |
| Omar MarmoushTottenham Hotspur | 21 | 3.68 | 1.23 |
| Liam DelapNottingham Forest | 28 | 2.84 | 1.98 |
| Taiwo AwoniyiCoventry City | 17 | 2.69 | 1.79 |
| Raúl JiménezWolverhampton | 36 | 3.02 | 1.88 |
| These 5, combined | 3.09 | 1.72 |
No close match — the nearest profile sits well outside the usual range, so read these five as the closest available rather than as like-for-like.
Recent matches
The last 10 games Federico Chiesa featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @ Aston Villa15 May | 24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chelsea9 May | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Man Utd3 May | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Brighton21 Mar | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tottenham15 Mar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Wolves3 Mar | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Nottingham Forest22 Feb | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Sunderland11 Feb | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Man City8 Feb | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Newcastle31 Jan | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 3 current Premier League officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Premier League referees
Frequently asked
How often does Federico Chiesa have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Premier League games, Federico Chiesa has hit 1+ shot on target in 30% (3 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Federico Chiesa average?
Across the last 10 Premier League games, Federico Chiesa is averaging 2.31 shots on target and 3.85 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Federico Chiesa get booked?
Federico Chiesa is averaging 0.77 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Federico Chiesa commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Federico Chiesa commits 3.08 fouls per 90 and wins 1.54 — committing more than winning. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Federico Chiesa?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Federico Chiesa plays as a forward.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.