What a window counts
Hit rates count the most recent completed games, newest first — reaching back into earlier seasons when the current one is short, and into games for a previous club, including in another league we cover.
All markets last 10 games
Compared with a Premier League full-back, 25/26, 1,736 appearances
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Picked from 41 selections across 14 matches on this week’s slate, each with its record and the market price.
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Over the last 10 Premier League games, Malo Gusto has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10), 1+ total shot in 30%, 1+ foul committed in 40%, 1+ foul won in 40%, and been booked in 10% (1 of 10). These are raw hit rates from completed matches, not odds.
Comparable full-backs
The closest 5 profiles to Malo Gusto in Premier League, 25/26 — drawn from 61 full-backs with 450 or more minutes. A reference for the rates above, not a forecast.
| Player | Apps | Shots/90 | Fouls/90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malo GustoChelsea | 34 | 0.48 | 0.79 |
| Timothy CastagneFulham | 30 | 0.67 | 0.87 |
| Lucas DigneParis Saint-Germain | 31 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| Diogo DalotManchester United | 34 | 0.83 | 0.86 |
| Nicolò SavonaNottingham Forest | 14 | 0.44 | 1.05 |
| Lutsharel GeertruidaSunderland | 28 | 0.58 | 0.79 |
| These 5, combined | 0.67 | 0.83 |
Recent matches
The last 10 games Malo Gusto featured in — minutes and the counts that settle these markets.
| Match | Min | SoT | Shots | Fouls | Won | Tck | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City12 Sep | 78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| @ Arsenal6 Sep | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Brighton30 Aug | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Fulham24 Aug | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @ Sunderland24 May | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| @ Liverpool9 May | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Nottingham Forest4 May | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| @ Brighton21 Apr | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Man Utd18 Apr | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Man City12 Apr | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Raw counts from every match on record, across 12 current Premier League officials — the model applies each official's overall card tendency, not this split. All Premier League referees
Frequently asked
How often does Malo Gusto have a shot on target?
Over the last 10 Premier League games, Malo Gusto has hit 1+ shot on target in 10% (1 of 10). That's the raw hit rate from completed matches; SharpXI's model turns it into a true probability by adjusting for the opponent and expected minutes, then compares it with the bookmaker's price as offered.
How many shots on target does Malo Gusto average?
Across the last 10 Premier League games, Malo Gusto is averaging 0.11 shots on target and 0.34 total shots per 90 minutes. SharpXI treats that as a starting rate, then adjusts for the opponent and expected minutes before pricing a 1+ or 2+ line.
How often does Malo Gusto get booked?
Malo Gusto is averaging 0.11 cards per 90 over the last 10 games. Bookings swing heavily on the referee, so the model multiplies a player's base rate by each official's card tendency — the biggest single lever in the to-be-carded market.
Does Malo Gusto commit or win more fouls?
Over the last 10 games Malo Gusto commits 0.68 fouls per 90 and wins 0.79 — winning more than committing. Fouls committed and fouls won are separate markets, each modelled from the player's rate and the opponent faced.
Which player markets does SharpXI model for Malo Gusto?
Shots on target, total shots, fouls committed, fouls won and to be carded — each as a true probability, compared with the bookmaker's price as offered. Malo Gusto plays as a defender.
Rates shown are raw counts from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage, opponent and referee factors before flagging value, and compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — player markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.